Fantasy Files - Comparing Players For Value

 ** All fantasy analysis is based on experience in a head-to-head format, with goals, assists, +/-, PIM, hits, special teams pts, and shots on goal for skaters.  For goalies, the categories are wins, goals against average, and save percentage. **


I'm going to give you two players and their stats from last season for comparison:

Player A:  54 pts, 53 PIM, 293 hits, 19 STP, +18, 214 SOG
Player B:  54 pts, 101 PIM, 226 hits, 20 STP, +15, 234 SOG

(PIM = Penalty in Minutes, STP = Special Teams Points, SOG = Shots on Goal)

The two players are pretty close.  Player A is an upgrade in hits, but player B is an upgrade in PIM.  The rest of the differences are close enough for give and take.

But ESPN'S fantasy rankings have Player A (Dustin Brown) ranked 72nd and Player B (David Backes) sitting pretty at 15th.

I would agree that Backes should be above Brown, due to the fact that it's hard to find complete players that make sizable contributions in the PIM category.  The leaders in PIM are usually enforcers, who specialize in dropping the gloves and little else.  (These types of one-category wonders will be called "stuffers," for picking one up means a team needs help stuffing a particular category.)  With Backes, you get your fill of PIM while still making solid contributions across the board.  Amongst forwards last year, he ranked 29th in PIM.  He didn't slack in the hits category either, finishing 12th.

Brown's whopping 293 hits place him only behind Matt Martin - another stuffer, but for hits - and make him an elite contributor to a single category, while still putting up enough in the other categories to make him a great option in fantasy.  His PIM are just average, but you know you're getting someone that's frequently in the top 5 in the NHL in hits, posting in the neighborhood of 300 year in and year out.  When you factor in that he was the Kings' best skater in the postseason, and that he plays on the top line with 9th ranked Anze Kopitar, there's enough optimism to consider taking Brown significantly higher than his ESPN ranked slot.

It's also worth noting that last year was far from being a statistical anomaly for either player.  Backes has passed 100 PIM before, and should be expected to put up closer to 60 points.  Brown's numbers actually dropped from the year before, but just slightly.

Neither of these players are flashy or put up astronomical point totals, but they score enough and are important assets to a fantasy team.  The first few rounds of skaters drafted are typically the ones that are most likely to score 80 points or more, making them the rarest of commodities.  But point totals are more likely to rise or fall dramatically than less tracked or glorified categories, like SOG, hits and PIM.  Once the consistent top scorers are taken, don't hesitate to take Brown with his 72nd ranking over gambling on someone like Ray Whitney (ranked 39th!!) to match his 77 points from last year.

Brown and Backes are the fantasy equivalent of "grinders" in the NHL - guys that don't always get their (fantasy) due, but are vital to winning seasons and championships.

For people new to fantasy hockey, don't rely too much on Fantasy Rankings, take the time to discover these relative diamonds in the rough, and reap the rewards all of next season.